Weak economic figures, a decline in money supply and fiscal tightening around the world are a few reasons why falling prices could be in the near future. Other factors that could lead to a drop in prices include tight credit markets, declines in consumer spending and high unemployment- all of which lead to a reduction in the demand for goods. Declines in the demand for goods eventually result in excess supply, which further leads to a decline in prices to bring supply and demand in equilibrium.
A fall in prices can be detrimental to an economic recovery if businesses and consumers become reluctant to spend and decide to hold on to any disposable cash. This decrease in money supply is most devastating to economies who are highly-dependent on consumer spending, such as the United States. Other results of deflation include erosion to consumer confidence and amplification to the burden of both household and public-sector debt.
Signs of deflation in the US have already started to emerge. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index (CPI) has been dropping over the last three months. In June, CPI dropped by 0.1%, in May by 0.2% and in April by 0.1% pushing the price index below its January 2010 levels. In general, as CPI declines, deflation looms. Additionally, the Federal Reserve recently reported that consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 4.5% in May 2010 and revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 10.5% during the same time period. These declines in credit utilization contributed to a 1.2% decrease in consumer spending, a trend prevalent in times of deflation because consumers believe that dollars will be worth more in the future and are postponing purchases.
Generally, cash is the best investment in times of deflation; however, one could also consider investments with a steady cash flow stream that shoot off generous dividends and interest payments. Some deflationary plays, which give diversified access to the dividend-paying stocks like Altria Group (NYSE:MO), AT&T (NYSE:T) and CenturyLink (NYSE:CTL) include:
- PowerShares HighYield Dividend Achievers (NYSE:PEY), which boasts a yield of 4.4%
- WisdomTree Dividend ex-Financials (NYSE:DTN), which has a yield of 3.91%
- iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (NYSE:DVY), which has a yield of 3.67%
- SPDR S&P Dividend (NYSE:SDY), which has a yield of 3.44%
As for interest paying ETFs, one could consider the following:
- iShares Barclays 1-3 Yr Treasury Bond (NYSE:SHY), which yields 1.23% and primarily holds bonds with a AAA rating.
- Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (NYSE:BSV), which yields 2.39% and allocates nearly 76% of its assets to bonds with a AAA rating, giving investors a little more return for risk.
- iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (NYSE:TLT), which boasts a yield of 3.75% and primarily holds bonds with a AAA rating. This is more of a long-term play on deflation, but generates a healthy stream of income.
Kevin Grewal serves as the editor at www.SmartStops.net, where he focuses on mitigating risk and implementing exit strategies to preserve equity. Additionally, he is the editor at The ETF Institute, which is the only independent organization providing financial professionals with certification, education, and training pertaining to exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Prior to this, Grewal was an analyst at a small hedge fund where he constructed portfolios dealing with stock lending, exchange-traded funds, arbitrage mechanisms and alternative investments. He is an expert at dealing with ETFs and holds a bachelor’s degree from the University of California along with a MBA from the California State University, Fullerton.