We break the monthly down into its various phases. You can see each phase has shortened its time element. The current, new phase just getting underway is way under the element of time. Logically, does the latest developing phase have enough framework to overcome the largest, just completed peak phase?
Common sense says no. Even we are of the belief and opinion that silver will ultimately go much higher, but the key word is ultimately. For the present tense conditions, that is an unrealistic expectation. From this chart, we know silver is highly unlikely to rally to $100, $200, or $300. Actually, not even $50. Facts keep our beliefs in check and context.
From this, it would be futile to expend mental energy promoting the premature notion that silver will become worth considerably more per ounce. Right now, it is struggling to maintain between $18 – $25. That is a fact.
The weekly chart zooms in on the difference between the last peak phase and the currently just developing new price phase. As mentioned, trend lines, TLs, are not the most reliable charting tool, but they can be a general guide, and right now, silver is not positioned to challenge/break the existing TL. The “Market NMT,” [Needs More Time].
The reason why we keep referencing opinions/beliefs is because they are subservient to the factual market forces. Right now, the fact[s] of the market have silver “valued” where it is, rightly or wrongly within the context of your own belief/opinion. Always remember beliefs and opinions are expressions of the Ego. Egos are emotionally driven; facts are reality based.
Upon which would you rather rely?
Buying and holding the physical metal aside, [the best and most consistent choice for reasons outside of charts], near-term traders have some valuable, factual information provided by the market.
Putting price into market segments, we can see support from the first box, on the left, was broken to the downside, and another lower trading box formed. Broken support becomes future resistance, and you can see how price was unable to rally above that established broken support/now resistance from the first box.
Once price rallied above the resistance of the second box, that now former resistance becomes new support. strengthened by the same support from box 1. The resistance of box one, the $25 area, acted as effective resistance for the third and current box.
We already have a context for market expectation in buying and holding physical silver. The lower, daily time frame can be used for making short-term buy/sell decisions in the paper market. Yes, it is blatantly manipulated, but if we have some rules of engagement, then we need no be concerned about purposeful market manipulation. We can choose to buy/sell based upon sound trading rules that offer an edge.