Swensen Six Asset Lazy Portfolio Review Exhibits Different Q1 Behavior (VNQ, VEU, VWO, VEA, VTI, TIP, LQD)

In the last article, we looked over the prior year’s returns for the Swensen Six Lazy Portfolio. David Swensen, the Yale Endowment Investment Manager, proposed this portfolio for individual investors.

– 30% in Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (MUTF: VTSMX)  ), (NYSE: VTI)

– 20% in Vanguard REIT Index (MUTF: VGSIX), (NYSE: VNQ)

– 20% in Vanguard Total International Stock (MUTF: VGTSX) or 15% in (VGTSX) and 5% in (MUTF: VEIEX), (NYSE: VEU), (NYSE: VWO), (NYSE: VEA)

– 15% in Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities (MUTF: VIPSX), (NYSE: TIP)

– 15% in Vanguard Long Term Treasury Index (MUTF: VUSTX), (NYSE: LQD)

We made one year comparisons between

  • The original Swensen funds with an annual rebalance. Swensen himself performs a daily rebalance but that is too onerous for the general user
  • The original Swensen funds with a quarterly rebalance. Normal protocal for advisors is to have a quarterly review of a portfolio and that is what this is
  • The Swensen funds with the MyPlanIQ strategic asset allocation for a moderate portfolio, 40% bonds 20% in each of the other three asset classes
  • The Swensen funds with the MyPlanIQ tactical asset allocation for a moderate portfolio, 40% bonds 30% in each of the top two asset classes or moved to fixed income (including cash)
  • The Six Core Asset ETF Benchmark

We now drill down into the first quarter of 2011 to see where differing market conditions test the portfolio’s performance. As we come to the end of the QEII program, we expect to see pressure on fixed income. PIMCO recently moved more heavily into cash and fixed income has been under pressure in general for a couple of quarters. In addition, with inflation becoming a reality in the emerging world, the lack of commodities could result in a drop in returns.

We previously noted that the buy and hold portfolios outperformed the momentum portfoilos over the past year. However, as we look into the end of that year (March 2010 – March 2011), we see a different picture emerging. There are a lot of moving parts as the fixed income segment is under a lot of pressure which is only exacerbated by the end of QEII. Inflation is making commodities more desirable followed by real estate and US Equities.

By looking at the current Major Asset Class Trends (note that we include Gold even though it isn’t a major asset trend in its own right) we can see that Commodities are clearly leading the field. Real Estate and US Equities are running neck and neck and fixed income is at the bottom of the table.

Major Asset Classes Trend

03/11/2011

Description Symbol 1 Week 4 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks 52 Weeks Trend Score
Commodities (DBC) -3.09% 2.93% 12.39% 27.11% 25.38% 12.94%
Gold (GLD) -0.81% 4.46% 2.08% 13.55% 28.04% 9.46%
US Stocks (VTI) -1.42% -1.83% 6.16% 20.86% 16.39% 8.03%
US Equity REITs (VNQ) 0.03% -1.17% 7.18% 11.52% 22.59% 8.03%
International REITs (RWX) -2.38% 0.62% 3.97% 12.27% 19.95% 6.89%
Emerging Market Stks (VWO) -2.15% 0.96% -0.17% 10.17% 14.38% 4.64%
US High Yield Bonds (JNK) -0.52% 0.13% 4.14% 7.46% 9.42% 4.13%
International Treasury Bonds (BWX) -0.23% 2.98% 4.84% 6.29% 6.33% 4.04%
International Developed Stks (EFA) -3.09% -2.45% 2.97% 12.37% 6.61% 3.28%
US Credit Bonds (CFT) 0.57% 1.48% 1.49% -0.3% 5.3% 1.71%
Emerging Mkt Bonds (PCY) 0.65% 1.93% -1.05% -1.84% 6.23% 1.18%
Intermediate Treasuries (IEF) 0.71% 2.07% 0.2% -2.75% 5.59% 1.16%
Frontier Market Stks (FRN) -0.59% -0.99% -9.1% -0.5% 16.21% 1.01%
Total US Bonds (BND) 0.55% 1.57% 0.56% -0.72% 2.92% 0.97%
Mortgage Back Bonds (MBB) 0.47% 1.64% 0.46% -2.36% 0.41% 0.12%
Treasury Bills (SHV) 0.04% 0.03% 0.04% 0.06% 0.09% 0.05%
Municipal Bonds (MUB) -0.08% -0.58% 1.34% -5.02% -1.76% -1.22%

Comparing the different plans, they each have slightly different properties

  • The two original Swensen plans will only rebalance, there is no notion of rotating funds — with the simplicity of the plan, this only makes sense with the fixed income portion
  • The Swensen plan with TAA and SAA do have the ability to rotate fixed income funds into cash or each other with a 90 day redemption period restriction
  • The Benchmark has commodities and the ability to rotate funds into cash with a 30 day redemption period

Currently

  • The Six Asset Benchmark has moved all the fixed income to cash and has the risk assets in real estate and commodities.
  • The Swensen TAA is in cash Real Estate and US Equities 
  • The Swensen SAA has 15% in cash and 15% in inflation protected (TIP, VIPSX), the balance distributed over US, international and Real Estate

The takeaways from the last quarter’s review are:

  • Equities have still been doing well so that the buy and hold of the original Swensen portfolio with only 30% in fixed income is doing well
  • The benchmark still trumps the original portfolio based on exposure to Commodities and the ability to move out of fixed income into cash
  • The Swensen TAA and SAA portfolios are weighed down by extra fixed income exposure and not access to commodities as well as not being able to quickly move in and out of sub-classes with a 90 day holding period

Our contention is, for those who are serious about optimizing their long term investments, that you have to be involved. A lazy portfolio is appealing because you can “fire and forget” with only quarterly adjustments. However, if you want more out of your investments and you accept that conditions will change, then a portfolio with monthly adjustments is more likely to give you better returns. It’s our contention that a monthly review (not necessarily requiring action every month), is about the right frequency.

Written By The Staff Of MyPlanIQ.com

LTI Systems, Inc. is the operator of MyPlanIQ.comand ValidFi.com. The founders of LTI Systems have extensive technology and business background in computer and semiconductor industries. They have been using the strategies provided by MyPlanIQ for their own personal retirement and taxable investments. The mission of LTI Systems is to make wealth management investment strategies that are used to be only accessible to institutions and high net worth individuals available to private investors with a fraction of flat cost and ease of use. The founders of LTI Systems, investors themselves, take pride in creating such a system and service for investors by taking the perspective from the investor side. They are using the system and the strategies for their own investment and align their interests with their customers.  

MyPlanIQ’s blog provides periodical articles to discuss issues related to retirement plans (401(k), 403(b) and IRAs), deferred compensation plans (457), college savings plans (529), taxable brokerage investment accounts, variable annuities and universal life insurance plans. It also covers investment strategies, specifically strategic and tactical asset allocation and investment products such as ETFs and mutual funds. In addition, it syndicates daily articles that are related to retirement planning, personal finance, investment strategies, annuities, insurance, college savings and market/economic outlooks. It provides a comment and discussion community for readers.

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