When Wall Street strategists insist on hedging their forecasts using time frames it means one of two things. Usually it’s a way of sidestepping accountability and ducking into the standard sales pitch about the stock market historically returning somewhere around 9% or more on an annual basis. While mathematically true that’s neither earth shattering nor actionable.
In the case of Raymond James’ Jeff Saut his emphasis on the big picture is a polite way of avoiding the fact that stocks have been trading horribly for over a month and there’s little to suggest the near-term risk outlook is anything other than ominous.
“I think longer-term we’re in a secular bull market very much like we were from 1982 to 2000,” offers Saut in the attached video. “Not a lot of people believe that, especially not the individual investors. They don’t understand how you can have a secular bull when you have dysfunctional government, unemployment higher than what it should be at this stage of a recovery and GDP lower than what it should be.”
What don’t investors understand? Stocks don’t care about absolute levels. What matters is direction. Saut thinks the economy is improving. In the big picture everything else is noise.
You can see the full “Breakout” segment below:
Related: Dow Jones Industrial Average(INDEXDJX:.DJI), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF(NYSEARCA:DIA), S&P 500(INDEXSP:.INX), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(NYSEARCA:SPY)