The Week Ahead, August 8th

Historic times. Whether a Democrat or a Republican. Young or old. Deserved or undeserved. Whether you think the rating agencies are pawns in a global financial chess game, you have to be disappointed that others have questioned the resolve of our great nation. “It takes a lifetime to build a reputation but an instant to destroy it” comes to mind. Are the rating agencies sending a warning shot over the bow? Further downgrades are possible they claim. Who is in the line of fire next? France? England? The ECB,G-20,G-7 and others have called emergency meetings this weekend to discuss plans of attack if this gets out of hand. Coordination may be key at this time but will it solve the underlining dilemma? Profligate nations in a global economy have taken confidence and tossed it in the trash. Flood gates have been left open for two years now to no avail. Markets are built to find the right price. That has not been allowed to happen for almost four years now. Blame the regulators, the high frequency traders or who ever you wish. Outliers have become more common because markets are not allowed to function properly. What was a generational occurrence has turned into an every five year scenario. We will now deal with the consequences. The re-flation of the equity bubble has proven it can be easily popped. Structural reforms from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue to 11 Wall Street, may be on the table once again as the last set have proven unworkable. Middle Eastern markets have opened heavily in the red. Asia is set to open in less than three hours. Expect chatter to be at a maximum. Our Federal Reserve meets Tuesday, but they may be pressed into action sooner. Have a great evening!


  • Europe- Swiss Unemployment estimate 2.8% & EU Investor Confidence est 3.4 vs 5.3 prior
  • Earnings- (NYSE:TSN), (NYSE:MGM), (MYSE:NDN), (NYSE:LYV)
  • Conference- CSFB Industrial Conference


  • Asia- Australia will lead off with its Business Confidence data. A big data dump will be forthcoming from China. CPI 6.4%, PPI 7.5%, Industrial Production 4.6% and Retail Sales 17.7%. Japan will kick in with Consumer Confidence data where a reading of 37 is expected.
  • Europe- Swiss Consumer Confidence will lead where an expected reading of -5 versus -1 prior is called for. Germany will release Current Account and Trade Balance data, and the U.K. will kick in Trade Balance and Industrial Production Data.
  • North America- A busy Tuesday here in the States as the Consumer will be in the cross hairs. NFIB Consumer Confidence, Chain Store Sales and Red-book data will all be on the docket. The FOMC meets with the possibility of QE III is definitely in the cards after the debt fight, terrible macro data and the downgrade.


  • Asia- Another bid data day out of China. Trade Balance figures 27.4, plus Exports and Imports data will highlight.
  • Europe- German CPI is the lone data point expected to be released where a reading of 0.4% is the estimate.
  • North America- Wholesale Inventories are to be released where estimates call for 1.0 vs 1.8 prior.


  • Asia- Japan’s Machine Orders data will highlight 1.8 versus 3.0 prior. New Zealand will kick in with Consumer Confidence and Australia will release their Unemployment data.
  • Europe- The Continent remains quiet on the Macro side with Germany releasing its Wholesale Price Index.
  • North America- US Trade Balance data is expected to come in at -47.6 billion versus -50.2 billion prior. Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims will also be released.


•Asia- Overnight Thursday into Friday will witness another data avalanche from China. New Loans and Money Supply data will be released. Japan will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.
•Europe- French GDP, Italian Trade Balance and Euro-Zone Industrial Production, estimate -0.1% will all be released.
•North America- Advanced Retail Sales -0.5 vs 0.1 will gauge the American Consumer once again. University of Michigan Confidence will be released during the session where a reading of 63.2 is expected. Business Inventories will be the final macro data point of the week where a reading of 0.6 versus 0.1 is expected.
•Earnings- (NYSE:GOL), (NYSE:JCP)

Tim Kelleher
Tim Kelleher has been in the middle of the electronic securities trading industry for the past two decades. Beginning at Instinet in 1992, Tim moved on to Broadway Trading in 1997 where he became a full-time trader. Trading with the Boca Raton Broadway “SOES Bandits”, Tim developed a style and eye for momentum trading and scalping. Over the years Tim has founded and worked with several top trading education companies. Tim is currently a registered T3 representative. Tim excels in pre-market trading events, as well as trading morning gaps and opening inefficiencies. Tim is also versed in and employs intra-day trending trades, capitulation trades, fundamental news trading, and technical analysis-based trades. In almost 20 years of trading, Tim has extensive experience with most types of profitable trading styles.

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