Thursday’s ETF Chart To Watch: CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)

Stoyan Bojinov: Stock markets endured yet another up-down day on Wednesday as investor anxiety over the upcoming European summit paved the way for range-bound trading. At home, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.34%, while the Nasdaq lagged behind, loosing 0.01% on the day. Uncertainty resurfaced after a German government official hinted that the nation would reject a proposal to combine the current and permanent Euro zone rescue funds. Gold prices appreciated as investors piled into the precious metal in anticipation of the upcoming European summit on Friday. Prices for the yellow metal settled near $1,745 an ounce as the trading session drew to a close.

Investors will shift their attention to the Euro zone later today as the European Central Bank announces its decision regarding interest rates and releases forward-looking commentary about the region’s economic outlook. Volatile trading may follow in the currency markets as analysts are expecting for a rate cut down to 1% from the previous 1.25%, which makes the Rydex CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSEARCA:FXE) or ETF to watch for today [see Three Long/Short Ideas For Euro Zone Debt Drama].

Chart Analysis

When considering the chart below, it fairly easy to see that this euro ETF was range-bound from May through August, since topping out at $148.81 a share on 5/4/2011. FXE oscillated between the $140 and $145 levels until debt woes resurfaced in the final days of August. Likewise, September was a brutal month to say the least, as heavy selling pressures hit the euro, sending FXE below its 200-day moving average (yellow line). FXE hit a recent low at $131.19 a share on 10/4/2011 and went onto stage an impressive recovery over the next month, only to encounter significant resistance under the $142 mark,  right around its 200-day moving average [see FXE Returns].

Click to Enlarge

Investors who are looking to get in long at current levels should take note that FXE has considerable support at the $132 mark, seeing as how it re-tested this support level recently on 11/25/2011. For those who are bullish on the European recovery and can stomach the risk and volatility stemming from all of the uncertainty, the upside potential in FXE is by all means very lucrative [see Euro Free Europe ETFdb Portfolio ].


If the European Central Bank issues a surprisingly positive economic outlook along with the expected interest rate cut, investor confidence may improve. In terms of upside, FXE could stage a rally towards $136 a share, although we would advise short-term traders to lock-in profits at the $138 mark, seeing as how this is a significant resistance level. On the other hand, if the ECB spooks investors, FXE could retest support at the $132 level, while a close below that would put $130 a share in sight. As always, investors of all experience levels are advised to use stop-loss orders and practice disciplined profit taking techniques.

Written By Stoyan Bojinov From ETF Database Disclosure: No Positions

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