Time To Bail On The Gasoline ETF? [United States Gasoline Fund, LP, PowerShares DB Energy Fund (ETF)]

gasoline pricesTrading in the energy commodity space, in particular oil and gasoline, has seen a rough start to the year on supply/demand imbalances that are pushing prices down. The signs of a slowdown in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, and emerging market turmoil have added to the woes.

This is particularly true with the United States Gasoline ETF (UGA) that lost about 6.76% so far this year, much more than the loss of 2.98% for the broad PowerShares DB Energy Fund (DBE), 5.55% for United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) and 2.27% for United States Oil Fund (USO).

Supply is Increasing

U.S. production is growing at a faster clip thanks to shale formations, and newly tapped oil and gas fields in North Dakota and Texas. Further, several closed locations are resuming production across the globe and Canadian oil sands are seeing continues growth, leading to a supply glut (read: Play the U.S. Oil Boom with These Energy ETFs).

According to the latest report from the EIA, gasoline production increased nearly 9.2 million barrels per day for the week ending (January 24).

Additionally, Iran’s agreement with the major world powers to curb its nuclear activities in exchange for softer international sanctions has finally erased the decade-long tension and enabled Iran to export more crude, once again helping to send prices lower.

Demand is Falling

Demand for gasoline is falling on the back of a seasonal trend (severe cold and snowstorms), growing popularity of fuel-efficient vehicles, and changing consumer habits.

Growing supply for crude is the major reason for the slump in the gasoline prices. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the average gasoline price is expected to fall from $3.51 per gallon in 2013 to $3.46 per gallon in 2014 and further to $3.39 per gallon in 2015.

UGA in Focus

The fund provides investors exposure to front-month gasoline futures, tracking RBOB gasoline for delivery to the New York harbor which is traded on the NYMEX.

The ETF is less liquid with daily trading volume of about 21,000 shares, suggesting a wider bid-ask spread. As such, investors may have to pay extra beyond the annual fee of 60 bps per year. The fund has managed assets of $53.5 million so far.

As traders need to roll from one future contract to another, the fund is susceptible to roll yield. The roll yield is positive when the futures market is in backwardation and negative when the futures market is in contango.

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