Trouble Ahead For This Biotech ETF?

biotechRick Pendergraft:  The biotech sector has had a rough go of it since last July. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSEArca: XBI) lost over half of its value from last July’s high to the February low, falling from $90.75 to $44.11.

The XBI biotech ETF has rallied approximately 30% off that low, but the rally has stalled in the last few weeks.

Looking at the daily chart, we see that the fund is stalling just below two different layers of resistance. First, we see flat-line resistance at the $58.96 level, which was the temporary low back in September. A second layer of resistance comes from a downward-sloped trend line that connects the high from last July with the high in December. That trend line is resting just above the $60 mark at this point.

biotech-ETF-daily-chart

Looking at the daily oscillators for the biotech ETF, we see that the daily stochastic readings just made a bearish crossover out of overbought territory and in most instances over the past year that has been a bad sign for the fund.

Turning our attention to the weekly chart for the biotech ETF, we get a better look at the trend line in the daily chart and we see the flat-line resistance as well. The most astonishing thing about the weekly chart is the steepness of the trend line. It is rare to see such a steep downtrend, but especially on an ETF.

biotech-ETF-weekly-chart

The weekly oscillators are also providing information that make me think the XBI heads lower in the coming weeks. The 10-week RSI is just above 50 at this time and over the last seven months each time the RSI got above 50 the XBI turned lower from there. The weekly stochastic readings are the highest they have been since last August and they are climbing.

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