The OPEC Dilemma
However, uncertainty about the implementation of this new quota and the likely large hedging flows following an initial rally would ultimately cap the price rally and leave our fundamental 2015 balance little changed as higher US production growth would offset lower OPEC output, leaving the oil market oversupplied. While media reports suggest that the odds of a lift of Iran sanctions by November 24 have declined, an extension of the deadline and ultimate agreement remains an upside risk to our 2015 production forecast and inventory build.
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Finally, don’t forget the reason for this.