Where Will The Gold ETF Bottom In This Corrective Cycle?

gold-cycle“Around two months ago I advised my partners to look for gold to drop to the 1040-1070 area in U.S. dollars. This followed my projection in early August of a gold rally from 900 to 1250 before the next top, and I was close as we hit $1,225 and rolled over. This correction so far in gold is normal in a bull market, and is intended to knock everyone off the back of the bull. The bull likes to make sure as few people as possible are along for the ride,” David Banister Reports From StockHouse.

Banister continues to say, “Currently we are seeing a strong counter-trend rally up in the U.S. dollar. Investor’s should keep in mind that the dollar index is simply a mathematical calculation against a basket of other currencies. In this case, 57% of that formula is the Euro. The Euro has had a dramatic correction and is likely to continue to drop due to problems in Greece and other countries. This makes the dollar look better on a relative basis, but investors should remember this is largely cosmetic. Deficits continue to balloon, debt ceilings are raised, and the U.S. Treasury has to rollover a significant amount of Treasury Bonds this calendar year. Traders and investors over-react to the rallying dollar and start selling off gold and silver as fast as they can. However, at some near-term point, gold is likely to firm up and bottom regardless of the dollar rally. There has been no fundamental shift in the U.S. dollar or its merits in my opinion, and in fact, the recent economic events are only making gold look more attractive relative to other world currencies. This pullback is required to work off the excessive optimist we saw in early December.”

“Most recently on January 22, I wrote an update to my December 4 forecast for gold. In that update I mentioned that gold was in a “C wave” down, and would likely bottom around 97-102 on the GLD ETF. You can read the entire article: HERE  A pullback in gold to the 102.50 area on the GLD ETF would fill a “Gap” in that chart, and represent a normal bull market 50% correction of the last swing. A further decline to the 97-98 area on the GLD ETF would represent a 61% Fibonacci re-tracement of the entire rally from April 2009 into December 2009. This correction, in my opinion, could continue into early March or May of this year, before the next leg up begins. Gold investors are advised to scale into gold as US1040 is hit, and all the way down to $980. At that point, the bull will continue to new highs as the smart money will be accumulating the gold dips, in my opinion, over the next 30-90 days,” Banister Reports.

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We have listed some options for investing in gold through ETFs below:

LONG:

The investment (GLD) seeks to replicate the performance, net of expenses, of the price of gold bullion. The trust holds gold, and is expected to issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold, and to distribute gold in connection with redemption of baskets. The gold held by the trust will only be sold on an as-needed basis to pay trust expenses, in the event the trust terminates and liquidates its assets, or as otherwise required by law or regulation.

The investment (GDX) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the AMEX Gold Miners index. The fund generally normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in common stocks and American depositary receipts (ADRs) of companies involved in the gold mining industry. The fund is nondiversified.

The Funds (GDXJ) investment objective is to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index (the “Junior Gold Miners Index”). For a further description of the Junior Gold Miners Index, see “Junior Gold Miners Index.”

The objective of (SGOL) the newly listed shares is to reflect the performance of the price of Gold bullion, less the Trust’s operating expenses. The Trust is open ended and is designed for investors who want a cost-effective(1) and convenient(2) way to invest in Gold as well as diversify their Gold holdings.

The investment (UGL) will seek to replicate, net of expenses, twice the performance of gold bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar p.m. fixing price for delivery in London. The fund normally invests assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics twice the return of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective.

The investment (DGL) seeks to track the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index – Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return. The index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on gold and is intended to reflect the performance of gold.

The investment (DGP) seeks to replicate, net of expenses, twice the daily performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index – Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return. The index is intended to reflect changes in the market value of certain gold futures contracts and is comprised of a single unfunded gold futures contract.

The objective (IAU) of the trust is for the value of its shares to reflect, at any given time, the price of gold owned by the trust at that time, less the trust’s expenses and liabilities. The trust is not actively managed. It receives gold deposited with it in exchange for the creation of baskets of iShares, sells gold as necessary to cover the trust’s liabilities, and delivers gold in exchange for baskets of iShares surrendered to it for redemption. The trust is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act.

SHORT:

The investment (DZZ) seeks to replicate, net of expenses, twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index – Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return. The index is intended to reflect changes in the market value of certain gold futures contracts and is comprised of a single unfunded gold futures contract.

The investment (GLL) will seek to replicate, net of expenses, twice the inverse daily performance of gold bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar p.m. fixing price for delivery in London. The fund normally invests assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics inverse to the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective.

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