Chris Ciovacco: On December 29, 1989 a massive inflationary bubble began to pop in Japan. As prices dropped, investors with cash sat on their wallets waiting for lower equity prices. The desire to “get out” became much stronger than the desire to “get in” and prices continued to fall. Japan started a process that central bankers have nightmares about – a deflationary spiral. As the chart of the Japanese stock market below shows, a deflationary spiral is very hard to stop once it starts. In fact, 24 years later the Nikkei is nowhere near its 1989 high.
Can you imagine if the S&P 500 peaked this week and did not revisit the high for over 20 years? Japan has been desperately trying to reverse deflationary trends. From Bloomberg:
It’s been 22 years since annual inflation in Japan exceeded 2 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In the last five years of the 1980s, when Japan’s gross domestic product climbed from $1.3 trillion to $3 trillion and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average peaked at almost 39,000, the monthly readings for consumer price gains averaged 1.2 percent, the data show. The Nikkei 225 closed today at 15,407.94. “It’s difficult to say whether we are really exiting deflation,” Mitani said. “Consumer prices are starting to rise, but a large reason for that is based on the weakening yen and rising energy prices. We can’t say that looking at recent results, we have really exited deflation.”
Mistake Of Excessive Accommodation
The Fed is committed to keeping its foot on the accelerator even though outcomes may well continue to fall short of expectations, and even though the “costs and risks” are likely to rise. If it ends up making a mistake, something that it will try very hard to avoid, it would likely be one of excessive accommodation rather than premature tightening.
Economic Improvement Heightens Tapering Fears
The Fed hopes their bond buying program will act as economic lighter fluid, sparking growth and hiring. Therefore, stronger economic data increases the odds of the Fed cutting back on the lighter fluid.