Why The Golden Cross Can Lead To A Golden Loss (UPRO, SPY, SSO, EEM, VGK)

Chris Ciovacco: A golden cross occurs when a market’s 50-day moving average crosses above its 200-day moving average. We believe conditions have improved since central banks have cranked up the printing presses, which means the recent “golden cross” in the S&P 500 (NYSEArca:UPRO) may turn out to be golden for investors. At the 15:08 mark of a January 17 video, we noted in 2008 emerging markets were “decoupling” from the economic problems in the United States, much as we are told the U.S. is decoupling from Europe today.  While the emerging markets (NYSEArca:EEM) were acting as market leaders in ‘08, as the U.S. is today, the index experienced a golden cross (see below).

Golden Cross

As you can see from the chart below, a golden cross can be followed by bearish outcomes as well.  In fact, the emerging markets had already peaked when the golden cross occurred in May 2008. Therefore, it is important we keep an open mind about developments in Europe (NYSEArca:VGK) and the possible outcomes in the U.S. after the S&P 500’s (NYSEAMEX:SPY) recent golden cross.

Golden Cross

Back home in the present day United States, we have high levels of bullish sentiment and an extended market.  As we noted in the January 31 video below, the S&P 500 (NYSEArca:SSO) may make another charge higher.  The outcome between current levels and 1,343 may set the tone for the next three to six weeks.

After you click play, use the button in the lower-right corner of the video player to view in full-screen mode. Hit Esc to exit full-screen mode.

We have heard for weeks “a deal is imminent” between Greece and its private creditors.  Despite the brave face, the situation is far from fully resolved according to the Guardian (01/31/2012):

Greek officials launched a vociferous behind the scenes attack on European Union and International Monetary Fund negotiators as talks in Athens over the country’s mounting debts appeared to stall.

Before a deal can be finalized, the European Union (EU) and Greece must agree on the terms of the next bailout payment.  In those negotiations, the EU is turning the austerity screws again with Germany applying the most force.  Getting additional cuts passed in Greece is no walk in the park.  From the Guardian:

Prime minister Lucas Papademos told aides that a crisis meeting of party leaders would be called as early as Thursday to thrash out a response to an increasingly intransigent negotiating team sent by Brussels, which is demanding severe austerity measures before sanctioning a further €130bn (£109bn) of bailout funds.

“The troika doesn’t appear to be willing to accept any concessions whatsoever on reducing the minimum wage and scrapping bonuses,” said the government aide. “No political party is willing to move either, saying wage cuts are a red line they are simply not going to cross. You tell me how this is going to be resolved. We have no idea and we’re very worried.”

While both CCM market models have jumped back into bull market territory, the Bull Market Sustainability Index (BMSI) is approaching levels that are typically associated with market corrections (see arrow right side).

CCM BMSI

Written By Chris Ciovacco From Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC

Chris Ciovacco began his investment career with Morgan Stanley in Atlanta in 1994. With a focus on global macro investing, Chris uses both fundamental and technical analysis to assist in managing risk while looking for growth opportunities around the globe in all asset classes. If you are looking for an independent money manager or financial advisor, Ciovacco Capital is worth a look. Chris graduated from Georgia Tech with Highest Honors earning a degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering in 1990. His experience in the professional ranks began in 1985 as he began working as a co-op for IBM in Atlanta.

Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC (CCM) is an independent money management firm serving clients nationwide. By utilizing extensive research, disciplined risk management techniques, and a globally diversified approach, CCM prudently manages investments for individuals and business owners. Our focus is on principal protection and purchasing  power preservation in an ever-changing global investment climate.

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