Why Didn’t Bonds Sell Off When The Fed Raised Rates?

From Bryce Coward, CFA: The post-Fed action in the bond market Wednesday was impressive, yet left some begging for answers. If the Fed raised short rates yesterday and reiterated its plans for the subsequent five rate increases through 2018, shouldn’t the long-end be selling off? If it were only that easy.
NASDAQ:TLT March 17, 2017 6:40am

The Impending Debt Ceiling Could Bring U.S. Economic Growth To A Halt

From Steven Vannelli, CFA: The interplay between debt and income can be a difficult thing to understand. Here is a useful analogy. Imagine a hot air balloon lying on the ground preparing for take-off.
NYSE:SPY March 8, 2017 6:56am

Return Of Federal Debt Ceiling Could Mean Big Trouble For Stocks, Bonds

From Steven Vannelli, CFA: Since the election we’ve heard the rally in stocks characterized as a “Trump Trade” or a “reflation” trade. We think there is a really important element missing from this analysis that could change very quickly over the next several weeks.
NASDAQ:TLT March 7, 2017 6:12am

Snap Inc Valuation Is Historically High, Even For A Tech IPO

From Bryce Coward, CFA: The Snap IPO has garnered a fair amount of coverage over the last two days so we thought we’d put some data behind the phenomenon.
NYSE:SNAP March 4, 2017 8:44am

Signs Are Mounting That Bond Yields Are Headed Lower Again

From Bryce Coward, CFA: The most recent CFTC commitment of traders report revealed little change in the historic long positioning of smart money bond investors.
NYSE:BND February 28, 2017 6:49am

Long-End of US Yield Curve Is Flattening, Short-End Steepening

bond
From Eric Bush: The spread between 30-year US treasuries and 10-year US treasuries has fallen to just 60 bps, which is the smallest spread in about 2 years.
NASDAQ:TLT February 18, 2017 8:26am

The Lowest-Yielding Stock Sectors Are Outperforming In 2017

From Jennifer Thomson: In the month of January, the most important factor correlation to performance of developed market stocks has been dividend yield (DY).
NYSE:XLB February 16, 2017 6:18am

Keep An Eye On Rising Inflation’s Effect On Real Estate

From Eric Bush: CPI excluding food and energy (core-CPI) increased by 31 bps in January for the largest one month increase since March 2006. Headline CPI increased to 2.54% year-over-year which is the fastest growth rate since March 2012.
NYSE:VNQ February 15, 2017 2:01pm

The Healthcare Sector’s Performance Has Zero Correlation With Earnings Estimates

From Eric Bush: Equity returns and earnings estimates should presumably be related. It makes intuitive sense that if earnings estimates are increasing for a sector than equity prices for that sector should trend upwards as well.
NYSE:XLV

Fewer And Fewer Stocks Outperforming As The Market Moves Higher

tech stocks
From Eric Bush: Just 44% of developed market stocks have outperformed the MSCI World Index over the past 200 days compared to 57% outperforming on average over the past 15 years.
NASDAQ:ACWI February 14, 2017 6:14am

Growth Funds Look Poised To Outperform In 2017

From Eric Bush: After underperforming in 2016, growth stocks have once again started to outperform value stocks in 2017.
NYSE:IWF February 7, 2017 11:11am

The U.S. Dollar Is Still Very Overvalued Versus Several Currencies

From Eric Bush: The stronger dollar is flowing through into our purchasing power parity (PPP) CPI differential models. Overall against 18 currencies, the USD is overvalued against 12 of them on a PPP basis.
NYSE:UUP February 2, 2017 7:05am

The Correlation Between Stocks And Bonds Is Creeping Back

bond
From Eric Bush: On 11/4/16, the 65-day correlation between between the S&P 500 and US 10-year treasury yields was as negative as it had been at anytime since June 2007.
NASDAQ:TLT January 22, 2017 8:21am

The Last Two Times Oil Jumped This Much, U.S. Bond Yields Plunged

From Eric Bush: It is somewhat hard to believe, but oil prices are up nearly 90% over the past year. The past two times oil prices have increased this much year-over-year, US 10-year bonds rallied quite significantly.
NYSE:TIP January 15, 2017 7:35am

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