Energy Remains The Strongest Sector Around The World

Image of oil derricks
From Steven Vannelli, CFA: Energy is the best performing sector in four of six market-regions. (From two market groups, Developed and Emerging, and three regions, Americas, EMEA, Asia, we get six market-regions.)
NYSE:VDE October 31, 2018 7:12am

Trade Wars Have Been Good For The U.S. Economy — For Now

president trump photo
From Steven Vannelli, CFA: Overnight, new data released in China suggests businesses are having a tough time lately. Cheung Kong University produces an alternate PMI Business Conditions Index in association with the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.
NYSE:SPY October 12, 2018 7:12am

Three Hints On The Direction of Chinese Assets

Image of a traditional Chinese building
From Steven Vannelli, CFA: The Chinese stock market is closed this week for the Golden Week holiday. On this side of the Pacific the markets have been busy this week with US Treasury bond yields breaking out and stocks selling off--especially technology--based on the revelation that China implanted devices in technology products shipped to the US.
NASDAQ:MCHI October 5, 2018 6:19am

Small Caps Fail To Break Out

From Steven Vannelli, CFA: Among the major groups of stocks around the world that we follow, US small-cap stocks have been the best performer over the last decade as the USD experienced a strong bull market. US small caps have outperformed our mid/large group of developed companies by almost 40% over the last 10 years.
NYSE:IWM September 28, 2018 6:13am

What Sectors In Emerging Markets Will Bounce First?

Image of a globe
From Steven Vannelli, CFA: Over the summer, some groups within the global equity market sold off sharply, leading to the current trends of poor performance and weak breadth. Foreign stocks, cyclicals and value-oriented sectors were the hardest hit. From here, we expect better trends from these groups as they have become statistically washed out.
NYSE:EEM September 21, 2018 6:08am

What Can Commodities Tell Us About U.S. Equities? (DBC)

From Steven Vannelli, CFA: Most commodities have suffered lately with the backdrop of tariffs and China's devaluation. But some have fared worse than others, and there is information content to the relative move in commodities.
NYSE:DBC August 9, 2018 6:21am

Equity Investors More Concerned About Rising Inflation Than Slowing Growth

Image of business magazine with coins
From Steven Vannelli, CFA: We calculate statistics for all developed and emerging equity markets around the world. For our mid/large cap indexes, we take the top 85% of all stocks in a given region or country and convert all prices into US Dollars.
NYSE:IVV July 24, 2018 6:16am

Has The Storm Passed For Emerging Markets Yet? (EEM)

From Steven Vannelli, CFA: Stock and currency markets often take their cues from the credit markets, so we find it instructive to keep a close eye on credit spreads and credit default swaps (CDS).
NYSE:EEM July 20, 2018 6:08am

Yield Curve Inversion Is Not What it Appears (TLT)

From Steven Vannelli, CFA: There has been considerable discussion lately about the slowly inverting yield curve and what it may signal for growth prospects going forward. Commonly used as a proxy for the yield curve is the spread between 10-Year US Treasury yields and 2-Year US Treasury yields. As of this writing, the spread is 24bps, having compressed by 2bps today after Fed Chair Powell's presentation.
NASDAQ:TLT July 19, 2018 6:13am

The U.S. Moves Closer To Oil Independence (USO)

From Steven Vannelli, CFA: The US shale boom has led to a surge in the production of crude oil, and much of this production has been exported in recent years.
NYSE:USO July 12, 2018 6:18am

Is Chinese Yuan Devaluation Different This Time?

Image of a traditional Chinese building
From Steven Vannelli, CFA: The Chinese Yuan has fallen precipitously in the last 10 weeks raising concerns of whether China was using the currency as a weapon to preemptively mitigate looming tariffs. A 6% devaluation over the last 10 weeks is a larger move than experienced in 2015/16. The timing and magnitude of the devaluation is suspicious to say the least, coming on the heels of President Trump's ramping up trade war rhetoric.
NYSE:FXI July 5, 2018 6:07am

Capitulation Appears To Hit Emerging Markets (EEM)

From Steven Vannelli, CFA: Yesterday, someone threw in the towel on EM bonds.
NYSE:EEM June 22, 2018 6:16am

Is Oil Or China The Main Concern For U.S. Markets? (USO)

Image of oil drums
From Steven Vannelli, CFA: Talk of a trade war with China has recently dominated the discussion in financial markets, overshadowing the other major story playing out in the US economy--normalization of the energy markets. I thought I would answer the question of whether trade with China or oil was a bigger economic issue.
NYSE:USO June 21, 2018 6:26am

Oil Inventories Undergo A Seismic Shift (USO)

us oil
From Steven Vannelli, CFA: Venezuela has experienced a collapse in oil production this year as the country sinks into chaos. Daily production is down from 1.7M barrels/day at the end of last year to just 1.44M barrels/day at the end of May. 
NYSE:USO June 14, 2018 6:15am

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