Will It Go or Will It Stay?

June 22, 2016 3:15pm NYSE:IEV NYSE:VGK

europeLarry Edelson:  Tomorrow, one of the most important financial decisions of the past 20 years will be put to a referendum in Britain. Should Britain remain a part of the European Union, or should it leave?


I won’t venture to guess on the results. It would be a toss of the coin. Or, it would be a rigged referendum, thrown into disarray by the assassination of liberal British lawmaker, Jo Cox, last week.

But I do know this: If British citizens are smart enough … if they care enough about their country’s rich heritage and sovereignty … they should vote to leave the EU as fast as possible.

You see, in addition to all the problems with the euro that the European Union has — it has other problems with member countries like Britain, which joined but did not accept the euro as its currency.

Thanks to Margaret Thatcher, who, with her wisdom beyond the ages, knew that the European Union was really a political union in disguise, an attempt to unite Europe under the guise of no more wars, even trade wars. Of uniform labor laws and central bank policies. Of uniform interest rates, free flow of labor and single currency.

But Thatcher saw through it all and saw it plainly for what it was: A power grab by the elite to have a majority of European countries give up their sovereignty, mainly to the strongest economy in the region, Germany …

And from there, work toward an authoritarian society where the elite of Germany, France and Brussels called all the shots.

Thatcher was 100% right. So she — unwillingly — allowed England to join the EU, but only on the condition that Britain be allowed to own its currency, the pound. A country’s currency is its pride of sovereignty — almost synonymous with its national flag — and no way was Thatcher going to give that up.

The big day approaches: U.K. voters will decide Thursday on the country’s future in the EU.

So what happened next? Something Thatcher didn’t foresee. As punishment for not taking on the euro, the European Union began to issue one burdensome regulation after another, attempting to stifle the economic growth of those countries that joined the union, but not the currency.

And in the years since, each and every one of those countries — the U.K., Denmark and Sweden — has largely seen its economic performance lag well behind not just the West or the Far East, but also behind the euro countries.

We’ll find out soon enough — tomorrow. As I said at the outset, it would be far better for the U.K. to leave, to escape the burdensome regulations of the EU, and to take back its sovereignty.

The same, by the way, can be said of every country in the EU. It is a failed experiment that was doomed from the get-go, and the longer Brussels tries to hold it together, the greater the backfire will become. And in the end, instead of uniting Europe, it will tear apart.

What about the immediate consequences of tomorrow’s decision? Here, too, one can only guess wildly; it’s such an important decision.

But I have an edge with my AI models, that give me a fairly reliable sneak peek at the future market movements. And from those sneak peeks, I can tell you what I think will happen.

First, Britain will vote to stay in the European Union. But don’t be surprised if you hear accusations of rigged voting as early as tomorrow.

Second, assuming Britain does vote to stay in, you should see another rip-roaring move to the upside in European and U.S. equities, just like we saw on Monday. Why? It would merely be a relief rally, euphoria over having everything staying the same rather than confronting change, which no one likes.

Third, expect the British pound to fall sharply against the euro, debasing the pound to give Britain a currency competitive trade edge going forward.

Fourth, expect commodities, mainly gold and silver, to plunge. There has been an enormous amount of gold and silver buying over the past two months or so as hedges against a calamity in the EU and Britain leaving. But if Britain doesn’t leave, those gold and silver hedges will get dumped before you can bat an eyelash. Same for mining stocks.

Fifth, the U.S. dollar will soar. Caught in a months-long sideways trading range, no-Brexit will send the dollar soaring, smashing other dollar-sensitive commodities along the way, everything from oil to soybeans.

It’s going to be a wild trading day today … vote day tomorrow … and even Friday. Not only is the decision a huge one, but most major brokerage firms are upping margin requirements as much as three-times over to cover the anticipated volatility.

This article is brought to you courtesy of Larry Edelson.


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