Forecasting Silver’s Price Trend For 2018 Proves Very Difficult (SLV)

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December 7, 2017 10:42am NYSE:SLV


The iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) has been essentially flat this year, amid anemic performance from the underlying precious metal.

The longer-term chart doesn’t provide much insight for a 2018 forecast, either. Silver has been flattish for a good three years now, following a very severe bear market that ran from mid-2011 to the end of 2014.

Technical analyst Taki Tsaklanos of Investing Haven has some ideas of where silver might be headed next year, although the most likely scenario simply appears to be more of the same sideways action:

  • As long as silver does not rise above $21 it has not broken out in which case it is trendless or bearish.
  • If silver falls below $16 (and stays below 16 for at least 3 consecutive weeks) it is bearish.
  • Between $16 and $21 silver is neutral.
  • Moreover, $14 is a major price level as it marks the lows of the last 9 years. If silver sets a major double bottom
    between 14 and 15 in 2018 then (only then) will we become very bullish for the long term.

In summary, Tsaklanos is neutral on Silver for 2018m with a bearish bias. That seems to be the only reasonable outlook for the metal, given its lack of recent catalysts, continued flat price action, and a general move toward cryptocurrencies rather than metals in terms of currency and equity hedging.

The iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) was trading at $14.90 per share on Thursday morning, down $0.20 (-1.32%). Year-to-date, SLV has declined -1.39%, versus a 18.95% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

SLV currently has an ETF Daily News SMART Grade of B (Buy), and is ranked #7 of 35 ETFs in the Precious Metals ETFs category.

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