Examining Longer-Term Housing Data Trends (XHB)

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May 18, 2018 5:56am NYSE:XHB

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From Jill Mislinski: Yesterday, we reported separately on the latest residential building permits and housing starts in the government’s monthly report, courtesy of the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.


Despite the fact that both are monthly SAAR series (seasonally adjusted annualized rate), they are exceptionally volatile and subject to extensive revisions. Thus it is unwise to assign much credibility to a single month.

Over the long haul, however, the two offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate, especially when we adjust the Permits and Starts for population growth. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the 1960 inception of the Permits data. The monthly data points are preserved as faint dots. The trends are illustrated with 6-month moving averages of data divided by the Census Bureau’s mid-month population estimates.

Housing Permits and Starts Population-Adjusted

Here is a closer look at the overlay since 1990.

Since 1990


The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) was unchanged in premarket trading Friday. Year-to-date, XHB has declined -11.16%, versus a 1.93% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

XHB currently has an ETF Daily News SMART Grade of B (Buy), and is ranked #21 of 42 ETFs in the Consumer-Focused ETFs category.


This article is brought to you courtesy of Advisor Perspectives.


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