3 Scenarios For Gold As It Nears Major Turning Point

gold timeLarry Edelson: I’d like to clarify my position on gold:

First, it’s bottoming. I can’t tell you precisely when or at what price, but I have every reason to believe that gold is now in the timeframe for a bottom, and a major bottom at that.

In fact, it may have already bottomed at $1,178 back in late June. That is possible. Or it may dip back to near $1,178 one last time, soon, or even after a big rally. Or it may just explode higher here and now.

It is impossible for me to say with any certainty. For anyone to say, actually.

All I can tell you is, again, that all of my models indicate that gold is very near, or already may have seen, an important bottom.

Second, trying to time the exact day or even the exact week, and the exact price, would simply be foolish.

That said, let me give you the three scenarios I see for gold. If it seems like I am talking out of both sides of my mouth, let me assure you that I am not.

I am merely giving you the three most likely scenarios for gold going forward, scenarios you will need to keep in mind to get properly positioned so you can minimize risk and maximize potential profits.

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Now is the time for long-term gold investors to begin testing the waters.

To invest or trade gold now without having these scenarios in mind is simply foolish.

Scenario #1: Gold’s low at $1,178 in late June was the major bottom. In this scenario, gold must now confirm it by moving and closing above $1,449.50 on a Friday, weekly basis followed by a weekly close above $1,605.50.

So far, gold has taken out important short-term resistance at the $1,338 level. That does indeed imply a further rally, with the next important level of resistance at the $1,400 level, followed by $1,449.50.

This is now becoming the highest probability projection. But, still, as in life, nothing is certain, so we must keep an open mind toward …

Scenario #2: Gold continues to rally, as high as $1,605.50, but fails to close above $1,449.50 or $1,605.50 on a weekly closing basis. Gold then trades back down, even as low as the $1,265 level in early 2014, and then begins another move higher, one that eventually gives us the “buy” signals we need to confirm the end of the bear market and the beginning of the next leg up. The $1,178 June 2013 low holds, but gold swings wildly before taking off for good.

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