During the commodities boom 10 years ago, among the darlings among speculators were the grains. However, like any market that becomes the object of such investor exuberance, grain prices soon withered. They have spent the better part of the decade since in a steady decline. There have been a number fits and starts along the way, though. And while each of the prior price spikes has been a head fake, another attempt is underway at the moment.
Obviously there is much work to do in order to reverse the longer-term trend, however, the S&P GSCI Grains Index is seemingly breaking an important line of near-term resistance in the form of the post-2014 Down trendline (on a logarithmic scale).
So will this trend break finally lead to a long-awaited, more durable bounce in grains? Or is it destined to be just another fakeout? In a premium post at The Lyons Share, we address that issue. Additionally, and importantly, we take a look at each of the major grains separately to see if any of them stands out as having a more favorable setup than the others (one does).
If you want the “all-access” version of our charts and research, we invite you to check out our new site, The Lyons Share.
The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA) closed at $20.14 on Monday, up $0.29 (+1.46%). Year-to-date, DBA has gained 0.85%, versus a 8.36% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
Disclaimer: JLFMI’s actual investment decisions are based on our proprietary models. The conclusions based on the study in this letter may or may not be consistent with JLFMI’s actual investment posture at any given time. Additionally, the commentary provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to invest in any specific securities or according to any specific methodologies. Proper due diligence should be performed before investing in any investment vehicle. There is a risk of loss involved in all investments.
This article is brought to you courtesy of Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.