Anticipating February Employment: ADP Report at 214K

jobsJill Mislinski:  The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).

Today we have the February estimate of 214K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, an increase from January’s 193K, a downward revision from 205K.

The 214K estimate came in above the forecast of 190K for the ADP number.

The forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 190K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number).

Here is an excerpt from today’s ADP report:

“Large businesses showed surprisingly strong job gains in February, despite the continuation of economic trends that negatively impact big companies like turmoil in international markets and a strengthening dollar,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. “The gains were mostly driven by the service sector which accounted for almost all the jobs added by large businesses.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Despite the turmoil in the global financial markets, the American job machine remains in high gear. Energy and manufacturing remain blemishes on the job market, but other sectors continue to add strongly to payrolls. Full-employment is fast approaching.”

Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.

The key difference between the two series is that the BLS series is for Nonfarm Payrolls while ADP tracks private employment.

This article is brought to you courtesy of Jill Mislinski from Advisor Perspectives.

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