Anticipating Friday’s Employment Report [Dow Jones Industrial Average 2 Minute, Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF]

jobsDoug Short: The most important economic news this week is Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, probably the most significant in the near term being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).

Today we have the estimate for March nonfarm private employment from ADP at 191K new jobs and a TrimTabs estimated range of 195K to 225K total new jobs.

The ADP 191K estimate came slightly below the forecast of 195K for the ADP number.

The forecast for Friday’s BLS report is 200 nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number). The PAYEMS consensus is 195K new jobs and their own estimate is for a lower 185K.

Here is an excerpt from today’s ADP report:

“The 191,000 U.S. private sector jobs added in March is slightly above the twelve-month average,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “Hopefully, this could be a sign there is more growth to come.”Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is coming out from its deep winter slumber. Job gains are consistent with the pace prior to the brutal winter. The gains are broad based across industries and business size classes. Even better numbers are likely in coming months as the weather warms.”

Here is the press release from TrimTabs:

“Job growth last month was the strongest in the past year,” said David Santschi, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs. “While Wall Street economists have been obsessing about the weather, real-time tax data indicates that the economy has been picking up steam.”TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 136 million U.S. workers subject to withholding.In a research note, TrimTabs explained that it is citing a range rather than a single figure for its March estimate because the impact of bonus shifting last year and higher bonuses this year continued to skew the withholdings data.

“Growth in withholdings was surprisingly high in March,” said Santschi. “While much of the strength was likely due to bonus effects, growth was so robust that some of it had to have been due to additional hiring. Other key indicators we track—including the TrimTabs Macroeconomic Index—also suggest the economy gained momentum in recent weeks.”

TrimTabs reported that wage and salary income — which includes bonus payments — increased 6.3% year-over-year in real terms in March after increasing 5.8% year-over-year in real terms in February.

Here is a visualization of the three series over the previous twelve months along with the latest ADP and TrimTabs estimates.

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