Doug Short: This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions continues to show strength, now at 19.3, up fractionally from from 19.0 last month. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 15.0. The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.
Here is the opening paragraph from the report.
|The June 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business conditions improved significantly for a second consecutive month for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index was 19.3, a reading nearly identical to last month’s multiyear high. The new orders index climbed eight points to 18.4, its highest level in four years, and the shipments index inched down to 14.2. The unfilled orders index held steady at a level close to zero. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received were slightly lower, indicating a slowing in the pace of price increases. Labor market conditions continued to improve, with indexes pointing to a modest increase in employment levels and hours worked. Indexes for the six-month outlook remained highly optimistic, with the future new orders and shipments indexes recording notable gains.|
Here is a chart illustrating both the General Business Conditions and Future General Business Conditions (the outlook six months ahead):
Click this link to access a PDF set of charts of the individual components over the past 12 months.
Since this survey only goes back to July of 2001, we only have one complete business cycle with which to evaluate its usefulness as an indicator for the broader economy. Following the Great Recession, the index has slipped into contraction multiple times, as the general trend slowed.