John Townsend: A few posts back I showed how gold’s parabola was progressing and was comprised of three line segments. An updated chart follows below and it appears price has fallen such that the three line segments have been reduced to two line segments.
I’ve been curious to see how the recent volatility in gold compares with the history beginning in 2001, so I made a simple indicator to give me some readings for comparison.
The indicator plots a histogram that measures the percentage change in the height of the daily candles. For starters I was looking to see which single days exhibited the greatest % difference between their candle high and low. Then I expanded the study to show me the greatest % difference over any two consecutive day period.
The purple trend line in the above chart is the same trend line mentioned in the first chart – that is a continuation of the second (magenta) line segment.
My little study was yielding interesting results so I continued it to 5 days, 20 days, 50 days and 200 days.
The simple conclusions this data offers us is more validation that we have witnessed a volatile event of unusual proportion. To date, it compares favorably with the volatility of 2008.
Will it measurably exceed the rampage of 2008? I guess we’ll know soon enough.
Related: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD).