Investors: Time To Get Long? (PCY, PZA, IWM, SPY, QQQ, DIA)

After an opening gap up, stocks closed near session high amidst choppy intraday trade. All five major indices posted solid gains as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:DIA) and small-cap Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) led the way with solid 2.3% gains. The S&P MidCap 400 rose 2.2% while the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) moved higher by 1.9%. The Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) once again lagged but still managed a 1.5% gain.

Market internals were mixed as volume slipped on the Nasdaq by 2.4%. However, NYSE volume climbed by an impressive 18.6%. Advancing volume outpaced declining volume on the Nasdaq and the NYSE by 4.1 to 1 and 6.3 to 1 respectively. The NYSE posted another accumulation day as evidenced by the strong volume.

On October 20th, the PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF (NYSE:PCY) formed a reversal candle as it overcut resistance at $27.00 on a significant spike in volume. Furthermore, PCY formed another reversal candle on Friday. A move back below the four day low of $26.83 could present a short entry trigger for this ETF.

The PowerShares Insured National Municipal Bond ETF (NYSE:PZA) has recently undercut support of its long term trendline and key moving averages. PZA is not attempting to reclaim support of these key marks. A volume assisted move above Friday’s high of $24.06 could present a buying opportunity in this ETF. We will be monitoring PZA closely for a potential entrypoint.

The market continues to demonstrate strength. However, we are approaching key resistance levels on all the major indices and they appear to be overextended. Consequently, we are inclined to wait for a pullback should we decide to enter any long positions.

The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit

Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to: [email protected]

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