Gold Silver Worlds: In his latest interview Jim Rickards gives an update on his economic and monetary outlook and compares it with his view two years ago when he was writing his book. In particular, he talks about the scenario that is unfolding currently: a monetary collapse.
In general he recognizes that we are going through a major transition which started in 2007. We are on our way to a new economic and monetary situation. Major transitions are characterized by unstability, or a bubbly environment. That will continue till one of the following scenarios becomes reality:
- Chaos, or monetary collapse.
- A basket of currencies acting as a world reserve currency.
- SDR (special drawing rights) issued by the IMF.
- A form of a gold standard.
Mr. Rickards still expects a collapse of the dollar as the most likely outcome. That has not changed since he has written his book.
Long term outlook – Monetary collapse
Mr. Rickards sees that we are heading towards the first of the four scenarios. Although he does not pretend to know the future (which nobody does evidently) he comes to his conclusion by analyzing the evolution. Up until now, based on the decisions and behaviour of policy makers, he believes there is enough evidence to believe that all signs point to a monetary collapse.
Just to clarify things, he adds, “there is nobody who really wants a collapse. The reason why it could happen has more to do with a basket of factors, including [but not limited to] the inherent instability of the monetary system, the inability of policy makers to correctly analyze the situation, wishful thinking, denial, delay, bad monetary science, wrong assessment of risk, etc.”
Is it too late to change direction and avoid a collapse?