Will Gold Drag Down The Miners? [SPDR Gold Trust (ETF), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF]

minersJordan Roy-Byrne: We know that the gold and silver stocks lead the metals at key turning points. The stocks started their bear market well ahead of Gold. This year the stocks have exhibited excellent relative strength. Gold and Silver are up less than 10% this year while GDX is up 27% and GDXJ is up 43%. In recent days GDX and GDXJ reached 10-month highs relative to Gold. SIL hit a 10-month high relative to Silver while SILJ, the silver juniors hit an 18-month high against Silver. The outlook for the miners remains positive but the miners are awaiting and need more strength from Gold.

Unlike the gold miners and Silver, Gold never reached a bear market extreme relative to its history. The chart below plots the bear markets in Gold and excludes the most severe bear in terms of price (1980-1982) and time (1987-1993). The bulls can say that Gold has bottomed because the miners did in December 2013. However, the bears can say the current price action is remarkably close to that of the end of the 1996-1999 bear. Until Gold takes out the March highs on a weekly basis then the bears have to be respected.

july17goldbears

 

Meanwhile the miners remain in excellent shape beyond a short-term perspective. We’ve already noted their relative strength. The chart below plots several different indices including the HUI Gold Bugs Index. The price action is bullish as the miners bottomed in December, made a higher low at the end of May and rallied back to the March highs. These indices are all very close to a major breakout. They are now in the 15th month of this long bottoming process. The topping process from late 2010 to early 2012 was just as long.
july17minersetfs

 

Our top 40 index which has a median capitalization of $750 Million, has already made a higher high and a 15 month high.

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