JP Morgan dramatically cuts 2nd-quarter GDP forecast

From Patti Domm:
KEY POINTS
NYSE:SPY May 24, 2019 1:12pm

After its recent downturn, is the stock market oversold?

Upswing Soar
From Keris Lahiff: Stock markets are slowly healing from the worst of the month's trade war sell-off.
NYSE:SPY May 22, 2019 12:46pm

Deutsche Bank maintains its forecast of a 30% return for the S&P 500 in 2019

S&P 500
From Jessica Bursztynsky:
NYSE:SPY May 21, 2019 4:46pm

Goldman Sachs warns that tariffs could lower corporate profits by 6%

Goldman Sachs logo
From Jeff Cox:
NYSE:SPY May 20, 2019 3:28pm

What is the best performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2019?

From Keris Lahiff: One stock has been a surprise winner on the S&P 500 this year: Coty.
NYSE:SPY May 17, 2019 3:08pm

China ignores Trump’s warning, issues new tariffs on U.S.

From Robert Schroeder: President Donald Trump warned China against retaliating in a trade spat with the U.S., saying the country would suffer if it didn't make a deal with Washington.
NYSE:SPY May 13, 2019 1:05pm

The S&P 500 has its worst week year-to-date

recession
From Emily McCormick:

Stocks recovered some losses Friday after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called trade talks with China this week "constructive." The upbeat comments helped ease concerns after President Donald Trump's new tariffs on Chinese-made goods went into effect early Friday morning, escalating fears of a full-blown trade war.

NYSE:SPY May 10, 2019 10:23pm

Could the S&P 500 headed for a 20% fall?

s&p 500
From Mark Kolakowski:
NYSE:SPY May 8, 2019 5:54pm

6 Reasons to Invest in ETFs Over Index Mutual Funds

ETF investing
6 Reasons to Invest in ETFs Over Index Mutual FundsFrom Michael Lewis: What does the American Dream mean to you? For many, it means having financial security, and having the ability to provide an education to children, take care of parents, retire comfortably, or remain independent while growing old.
NYSE:SPY May 6, 2019 5:49pm

The S&P 500 gains after Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida says U.S. economy is strong

From Jeff Cox: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said Friday the U.S. economy is strong and interest rate policy is an appropriate place to support growth.
NYSE:SPY May 3, 2019 1:20pm

Morgan Stanley analyst issues a “mea culpa” after the S&P 500 rallies 17% in 2019

From Lu Wang:

(Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson acknowledges he made the wrong call on the U.S. equity market this year. But that hasn’t dissuaded him from holding onto one of Wall Street’s most bearish forecasts.

With the S&P 500 Index at a record high after surging 17 percent this year, the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist issued a mea culpa Monday, saying he underestimated a rally that’s been driven in large part by the Federal Reserve’s dovish tilt. Rather than revisiting the 2018 trough, as Wilson had predicted in January, stocks have kept marching higher.

It's the second time in seven months that Wilson has owned up to an overly pessimistic prediction. Last September, he said his early call for a correction amounted to the same thing as not being right. A few weeks later, stocks began a sell-off that ultimately took the S&P 500 to the brink of a bear market.

Still, Wilson is sticking by his longer-term outlook for the market. Even though this year's rebound has pushed the S&P 500 about 7 percent above his year-end target of 2,750, fundamentals just don't support the market's current levels, according to his analysis.

"We have to acknowledge our error and decide if the market is telling us something and if we should raise our targets," Wilson wrote. "The short answer is no because valuations are full and we still see downside risk to the consensus earnings estimates over the next 12 months."

At 17 times forecast earnings, the S&P 500 is trading at a multiple that's 14 percent higher than its 10-year average, data compiled by Bloomberg show. While first-quarter earnings have come in better than expected, analysts have continued to lower estimates for coming quarters. The expected rate of growth for the current quarter just turned negative.

While the size of predicted declines is small, any deterioration would raise the odds for an earnings recession, a scenario that Wilson predicts for this year. Despite the unfavorable profit backdrop, speculation that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates and optimism that a China-U.S. trade agreement will be reached have continued to lift the market.

The S&P 500 could rise to 3,000, about 2 percent above its current level, on the announcement of a trade deal, but that should be seen as a sell signal, according to the strategist. Despite growing talk about a market melt-up, investors shouldn't chase the rally, he said.

Morgan Stanley defines a market melt-up as a period when the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio moves to high levels versus its recent past very quickly. The firm identified six instances over the past three decades that fit the criteria and found they shared something in common: they're either accompanied by monetary or fiscal stimulus.

While the Fed has tilted more market friendly, Wilson suggested the current environment lacks other elements that would embolden a melt-up, such as a weaker dollar, better growth outlook and a potential uptick in consumer confidence. In particular, companies such as Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook Inc. have cut capital spending while small-caps and cyclical shares have trailed the market, all evidence pointing to subdued growth prospects.

"The positive spin is that maybe last week's spike is like the spike in early January 2018 and we still have another spike to look forward to as people decide they have to pile in," Wilson wrote. "Use at your own peril, but our advice is to not bet on it at this stage because the fundamental conditions are different from past periods that exhibited such exuberance."


The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell $0.26 (-0.09%) in after-hours trading Monday. Year-to-date, SPY has gained 10.56%. SPY currently has an ETF Daily News SMART Grade of A (Strong Buy), and is ranked #1 of 154 ETFs in the Large Cap Blend ETFs category.
This article is brought to you courtesy of Yahoo! Finance .
NYSE:SPY April 29, 2019 5:23pm

Jim Paulsen says the S&P 500 could rise another 15%

From Matthew J. Belvedere: Wall Street veteran Jim Paulsen believes stocks could continue to surge well past their recent recovery to the all-time highs that were last seen before the late-2018 market collapse.
NYSE:SPY

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at record highs

s&p 500
From Sue Chang and Chris Matthews: Stocks closed higher Friday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq finishing at records, as stronger-than-expected first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product growth offset the negative impact of disappointing earnings.
NYSE:SPY April 26, 2019 8:00pm

Why the Technology Sector will continue leading the stock market higher

technology sector
From Chris Matthews: Several broad measures of technology-industry stocks are hitting all-time highs, and that's a bullish signal for U.S. stocks in general, according to one technical analyst.
NYSE:SPY April 25, 2019 8:00pm

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